Social Scientists may explain the past pretty well, but they’re not very good at predicting the future. We’re good at predicting some things–for example, we can predict election results OK, with good polls. But wars? Economic recessions? Revolutions? We’re bad at it.

What makes prediction in social science so difficult? Based on your reading of the first two chapters of Donovan and Hoover, give your best answer to this question in an essay of about 250 words.

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